Last year’s strong performance saw direct mail return to growth for the first time since 2021, as a strong spike in Q3 took the vertical to 0.8% growth for the year overall. 

This growth, powered in part by the general election, will be followed by a “degree of stabilisation” in the direct mail market, with annual contraction easing from -3.6% in 2025 to -2.2% in 2026. While unwelcome, the contraction of £50m between the end of 2023 and 2026 is significantly less than the dip of £138m that came in 2023 alone.

James McDonald, director of data for intelligence and forecasting at WARC, told Printweek that the economic outlook for advertising spend looked difficult over the next two years.

“The economic picture is challenging and has worsened since January due to the looming spectre of trade tariffs with the US, the UK’s largest export market,” McDonald said.

“Tighter margins could stoke inflation in the UK, piling further pressure on stretched household budgets. 

“That said, there is the prospect that international brands – particularly those in China – redivert ad budget to the UK to account for lost demand in the US. We remain on a watching brief and keep our outlook in constant review, but we are already seeing the economic backdrop leading to hesitancy to commit ad budgets.”

Even in 2024’s strong performance, much of the growth in spend was dedicated to digital channels,  with online display and search recording 15% and 13% growth, respectively. Combined, the formats accounts for nearly 80% of total UK ad spend. Social media and online video were particularly strong performers at 20% and 23%.

Out-of-home (OOH) advertising saw some of print media’s strongest growth in advertising revenues, at 3% – though digital OOH surpassed it with 10% growth – and recorded its fourth year of continuous growth. Both print and digital are expected to record gains in 2025 and 2026, though at a slower rate than 2024.