The BPIF recorded a negative balance of -8 on the question of whether trade conditions were improving or deteriorating in its quarterly survey, which was completed by 78 companies on 1-15 July.
Domestic price levels unsurprisingly reverted to a downward trend, due to the weak demand in the quarter, with a third of printers reporting they had to cut prices, versus just 11% that were able to push through rises.
However, signs of strong demand in the web market, where Webmart has reported a spike in orders in the usually quiet month of July, could herald a bumper second half.
"It's been notable that there's been a lot more activity this time of year than the year before," said Webmart managing director Simon Biltcliffe. "If you look at the 32-page and above marketplace, it's filling up much more quickly than last year – by about a month on like-for-like trading volumes.
"It's the biggest change we've seen in about seven years and the 16-page marketplace is inevitably going to be filling up by the time school starts, so we've sent an email out to clients saying: whoever you want to book your orders with, book early, because there's only one way prices are going to go between now and mid-January and that's up."
Biltcliffe added that it would be better for clients to book their slots now, even if they were unsure on final pagination and run lengths, to avoid any surprises in the Autumn.
"If you've got a slot booked, people don't mind increasing the pagination or run length, broadly speaking, or reducing it. But if there's no room at the inn, you're going to be moving down to smaller presses to print your work on, which will cost significantly more than having it on the right press.
"I think towards the end of the year – from 1 September onwards – there's going to be an awful lot of people caught out with the change in the marketplace and their budgets are not going to reflect the prices they're getting."
There can be no guarantee how far or how fast the boom in the web market, which has been influenced by the recent consolidation, will trickle down the food chain; however, SME printers will hope a sustained period of high demand will have a beneficial impact on all print prices.
"The canary for capacity is always the high-volume, large-pagination web offset – if that moves first then it cascades down," said Biltcliffe.
"It's mainly cost driven at the moment but if the market prices stick there will inevitably be an increase in margins, because if it sticks for material prices then why wouldn't it stick for margins?
"You've got to be smart and you've got to read the runes right and make sure you trade properly but there are going to be big opportunities."
