The study looks at the period between 2009 and 2014, and projects a 0.3% drop in the page volume of analogue printing and a growth of digital printing by 15.9%. While this appears to show a major increase in digital, when these figures are put into context they show that analogue still makes up 97% of all print volume. These numbers are not by value but by number of sheets printed and the study indicates that digital pages have a much higher value than analogue.

One of the key aspects of the PRIMIR report is to assess when the ‘tipping point’ of analogue to digital printing will take place, something the study suggests will take decades.

Heidelberg intends to re-enter the digital arena this year (see p18) and has carried out its own study, based on the value of print rather than the number of pages. Its breakdown of 2009, which it estimates had a worldwide printing value of €413bn (£347bn), covered several different areas. Commercial print accounted for 42%, sheetfed had 38% and digital accounted for just over 6%.

The Heidelberg figures confirm that digitally printed pages are worth more than analogue printing pages, in line with the assumption that digitally printed pages capture higher street prices than the average analogue printed pages.

Another set of figures from Heidelberg show that, despite the recession, the overall volume of sheetfed offset print revenues have not fluctuated wildly. Print’s lowest year of revenue in the past decade was 2003 and the highest was 2007 – the drop in 2009 was brisk but did not fall below the 2003 level.

Incremental growth
By 2015, Heidelberg is projecting a growth of approximately 1% a year based on the limited decrease of sheetfed offset print revenues in 2009 and the positive print market outlook in developing countries. This 1% growth translates pretty well with the PRIMIR-forecasted decrease in the printed area in the same time period.

In comparison with the smooth print production volume development in the recent crisis, there was a major drop in investment in new presses in 2009, and while there is a projected increase from 2010, Heidelberg does not see this reaching pre-2009 levels.

Many projections I see for digital printing growth are pretty wild, particularly where the subject of personalisation is involved. I don’t think there is a very high volume of personalisation being carried out, and most of what is being produced is being done by specialist organisations, while most commercial printers carry out very little work in this area.

Obviously, this will be boosted by the introduction of high-speed continuous-feed inkjet presses, but most of this business growth will be in the transactional printing market. Also, at this time most of the new high-speed inkjet printing is being aimed at offset replacement for items like book printing, rather than for the personalisation market. One area of digital printing that is seldom covered but where most personalisation is carried out is the overprinting of offset-printed direct mail work using inkjet printheads. According to one of the largest direct mail printers in the UK, it’s not viable to produce large-scale personalised direct mail on digital printing presses, as the running costs are far too high compared with offset printing.

While I am a huge supporter of digital printing, it will be a long time before digital becomes larger than analogue printing.

Offset presses are very competitive, particularly in a web-to-print environment. Sheetfed digital electrophotographic presses are reaching the limitations of their technology, and at this time inkjet presses are not able to achieve the quality of the best sheetfed offset and are limited on substrates that can be handled.

Digital printing currently has virtually zero penetration in the magazine and newspaper printing sectors and a very limited presence in packaging. I have to agree with Heidelberg’s projections – offset will maintain its position against digital for many years to come.

---

30-SECOND BRIEFING ON… THE FUTURE OF DIGITAL PRINT
• A study from the Printing Industry Market Information and Research Organisation projects a 0.3% drop in the page volume of analogue printing and a growth of digital printing by 15.9% between 2009 and 2014
• While these figures appear to show a major increase in digital, if you put them into context, they show that analogue
printing still accounts for 97% of all print volume
• According to Heidelberg, digital print made up just 6% of the overall value of print in 2009
• Despite the recession, the overall volume of sheetfed offset print revenues has not fluctuated wildly
• Print’s lowest year of revenue last decade was 2003 and the highest was 2007 – the drop in 2009 was brisk but did not fall below the 2003 level
• By 2015, Heidelberg is projecting a growth of approx 1% a year based on the limited decrease of sheetfed offset print revenues in 2009 and the positive outlook for print in developing nations
• The day when digital overtakes analogue as the most widely used method of printing is currently a long way off