Following the introduction of plain packaging for tobacco products, including in the UK in 2017, and repeated calls to extend the legislation to other sectors, business valuation consultancy Brand Finance has once again analysed the potential impact of such a policy on food and beverage brands in four categories: alcohol, confectionery, savoury snacks and sugary drinks.

The consultancy predicted eight major brand-owning companies would lose a total of $234bn if plain packaging was mandated for other FMCG products, with alcohol and sugary drinks brands most vulnerable.

Given the growth of brand values over the past two years, the figure is nearly $50bn larger than the $186.7bn calculated in 2017, when the first Brand Finance Plain Packaging report was published.

Alcoholic drinks producers including Heineken, AB InBev, and Pernod Ricard, meanwhile, would see 100% of their brand portfolios exposed to the legislation.

An extrapolation of the results to all major alcohol and sugary drinks brands, points towards a potential loss of $430.8bn for the beverage industry globally.

The estimates refer to the loss of value derived specifically from brands and do not account for further potential losses resulting from changes in price and volume of the products sold, or illicit trade. Therefore, Brand Finance said the total damage to businesses affected is likely to be higher.

Brand Finance chief executive David Haigh said: “Since we produced the first Brand Finance Plain Packaging report in 2017, a number of other countries have either implemented – or legislated for – plain packaging for tobacco products.

“With health advisors labelling obesity ‘the new smoking’, it is not surprising that there have been repeated calls for this type of legislation to be expanded into the food and drinks sectors. It is obvious, however, that this would severely damage these companies’ business values.

“However, the predicted loss of brand contribution to companies at risk is just the tip of the iceberg. Plain packaging would also lead to losses in the creative industries, including design and advertising services, which are heavily reliant on FMCG contracts.”

The new Brand Finance report was launched last month at the Food Ethics Council’s Food Policy on Trial event in London, which put the idea of plain packaging for junk food ‘in the dock’ as an emerging but contentious policy idea.

The Food Ethics Council concluded that regulation about labelling and claims must be “radically reformed” to avoid increasing spurious and dishonest claims in the food sector, and said there is an urgent need for honesty and clarity on food packaging if the UK is to avoid descending further into “a wild west of lawlessness” when it comes to food claims.

Additionally, it said that people must be able to trust that the food or drink in their local food outlet ‘does what it says on the tin’, and that radical options such as introducing plain packaging on the worst impact food and drink categories should be kept on the table as potential future policy interventions, as part of a wider strategy.

The jury, which was made up of industry experts and civic society key influencers, called for much stronger regulation on packaging and on food and drink claims, both in what is allowed and how strictly that is enforced.

It also called for honesty to become a central tenet of any food strategy and proposed a citizens’ assembly to decide on which claims about food and drink should and should not be allowed, on packaging and more broadly.

Brand Finance gave evidence at the event and cautioned against bringing in plain packaging for food and beverages.

Meanwhile, in her final report as chief medical officer earlier this month, Time to Solve Childhood Obesity, Dame Sally Davies called on the government to “apply either a fiscal lever or standardised packaging” for sweets and chocolates if “sufficient progress is not made”.

Mike Ridgway, director of the Consumer Packaging Manufacturers Alliance, said the recent announcements “offer a stark warning to the print and packaging industry that change is on the way”.

“Most people would agree that we need a sensible debate around responsible food and drink consumption, but unproven legislation like plain packaging cannot be the solution, particularly when there’s actual evidence to suggest it doesn’t work.

“Public health bodies like Public Health England (PHE) take their lead from groups like the Food Ethics Council and supranational organisations like the World Health Organisation, who like to wield the big hammer and to ban aspects of consumer behaviour in the name of protecting public health.”