"Modest" economic growth will return in 2010 with pace of growth gradually increasing during the year, the CBI said.

The projection follows an optimistic outlook from well-respected think tank NISER, which said that the UK was already out of recession.

However, CBI director general Richard Lambert said: "The world recession has deepened, so it is not surprising the UK economy has continued to suffer.

"However, the harshest period of the recession looks to be behind us – the economy is stabilising and this should continue during the second half of this year."

He predicted the return to growth would be "a slow and gradual one" and warned that some commentators had got "carried away" by "recent tentative indicators of evidence of green shoots".

"It will be some time before we can be sure these shoots have roots," he said.

The CBI said it expected that, by the end of the recession, the economy will have shrunk by a cumulative 4.8% - not as severe as the 5.9% seen in the early 1980s - after five consecutive quarters of falling GDP.