The waste-based market upturn, usually experienced in September and October, has failed to happen this year and order inflow reports show lead times are being drastically cut from around four or five weeks in spring to about one week. Lack of demand and lower recovered paper prices have paved the way for spot deals with prices cut by 2-3% for large orders.

Although these deals have yet to affect regular prices in the UK or most of Europe, there is concern over their knock-on effects. But virgin fibre is a different market with order backlogs ranging from two to six weeks, and coated duplex board prices have climbed by 32-38 a tonne. And all producers' price increases were expected by the end of November.

One producer said the UK was faring well compared to the rest of Europe: "We often hear that Germany and France are in a pickle - the UK is fine. Packaging is more stable than other sectors at the moment and there's nothing to suggest that next year will be much different," he said.

Sources have reported improvements in the last few weeks, with an increase in overall demand, especially for folding boxboard. Indeed Stora Enso has implemented a 40-45 per tonne increase.

Story by Rachel Barnes