UK business’ financial hardship resulted in nearly 24,000 county court judgements (CCJs), served against companies for failing to respond to creditors, in the final quarter of 2022 according to a report by management consultancy Begbies Traynor. The figure was 52% up on the last quarter of 2021, and 77% higher than pre-Covid.

Julie Palmer, partner at Begbies Traynor, said that she was surprised that the UK had not seen more businesses close their doors: “What we are hearing from directors of businesses is extremely distressing. [...] We’re taking calls from company bosses who are having trouble digging deep enough to keep battling on.

“They are already having to pay back the support they took to get through Covid and, anecdotally, we are hearing that both the government and HMRC are becoming more determined in pursuing debts, while other creditors are increasingly turning to the law to recover their debts.”

Business’ gloomy outlook was also reflected in last week's Federation of Small Businesses confidence outlook: nearing the pandemic lows of Q4 2020, confidence plunged from -36 to -46 points between the third and fourth quarters of 2022.

The print industry has been particularly badly hit by a combination of paper, energy and labour cost increases, at a time when many firms have been required to ramp up their Covid loan repayments, according to Ian Carrotte, owner of print and allied trade credit intelligence group ICSM.

He told Printweek that the group had seen a rise in voluntary liquidations as older owners decide to retire or start a new business entirely.

“However, as in all recessions, some businesses do well as their competitors fall into administration leaving a clearer field. And dare I say some cynical types will phoenix their companies and essentially start up again with no historic debt,” he added.

The industry's challenges may soon ease, however, according to Kyle Jardine, the BPIF’s economist and Northern Ireland manager.

Speaking to Printweek about the as-yet unpublished results of the BPIF’s latest industry survey, he said financial pressures would be weighted towards the first half of the year.

He said: “Looking at the research we've just done, it was a tough end for last year, and [I suspect] the first quarter will be pretty tough as well for many companies.”

Significant cost pressures remain in energy and paper, he said, adding, however, that these seemed like they might stabilise in the near future as paper and energy costs level out and inflation falls.

He said: “For a lot of companies, further ahead, in the second half of the year, things are not looking as distressing as they were a couple of months ago. But there’s a lot to get through in the first six months, I would say.”

Brendan Perring, general manager of the IPIA, warned that energy was unlikely to fall below 100p per therm. In the ten years to 2021, prices ranged from 10 to 80p per therm, according to online tracker TradingEconomics.

He told Printweek: “While the overall level of energy prices may stop increasing, they’re not going to drop again, for a very significant time.”

Perring added, however, that it was unlikely the industry would see a rush of insolvencies - but rather a “continued drip” of failing businesses as print bosses cling on for up to eighteen months attempting to rescue the business.

“Print business owners are so tenacious, innovative, and passionate about their businesses - most of them have come up through the boards from being apprentices all the way up - they want to keep people employed, they want to see their businesses thrive,” he said.

The current economic outlook, he added, required of printers a “fight them on the beaches spirit”.

“On the other side, we see huge opportunity for our industry because the digital bubble, I firmly believe, has burst. The level of digital fatigue in the average consumer has never been greater.

“There has been a significant desensitisation to marketing and communications such as email, digital advertising, and social media advertising.

"A lot of major brands and marketing agencies are returning to print - maybe they want a cross-media campaign tied to digital assets, but they really want to return to print, to engage and cut through with consumers again.”

Carrotte was of like mind, saying the industry was still “in transition” after the introduction of digital media.

“I feel we are near the bottom of that particular cycle,” he said.

Book publishing’s good performance, the boom in packaging and labels, and wide-format print’s strong profitability, he added, have supported firms through the crisis.

He said: “When we will again see the glory days of printing return is open to question – but the traditional print industry does well when the economy is buoyant – and at the moment that seems some months if not years away.”

Charles Jarrold, chief executive of the BPIF, told Printweek that the economic crisis had prompted both printers and their customers to reckon with the commercial reality of print in the 2020s, saying that many printers had passed on costs without objection from clients.

“Realistically, the economy’s entering a challenging period and print is not going to be immune from that,” he said.

“However, I think we’ve come through the challenges over the past couple of years very strongly.”

Both he and Jardine said they were encouraged by the amount of investment companies have been making in new technologies, such as net-zero projects, energy-efficient machinery and automation.

Jarrold said: “When one looks at the scale of investment going into the sector, in terms of developing technologies to meet customer needs, that’s a massive source of optimism.

“The reality is that it is tough right now but economies do go in cycles, and we will come through this - I hope - reasonably quickly.”

Perring, too, was cautiously optimistic: “We’re not naive, the industry is going through a tough time. But overall, I feel there is opportunity in print - and we need to work harder than ever to achieve it.”