Though still nearly a year away, the 2012 elections are shaping up to be potentially some of the most bitterly contested - and certainly the most expensive - in US history, with Democrats, Republicans and a host of interest groups prepared to spend billions of dollars in order to sway voters next November. 

It could also be the fillip the US commercial printing industry needs to help it turn around an endemic decline in its fortunes.

"Presidential elections have generally increased print and over the last few election cycles the impact has been growing," explained Dr. Ron Davis, vice president and chief economist with the Printing Industries of America. "I believe the impact will be even more significant next year because of the increase in spending by more groups and candidates. The old rule of thumb used to be that presidential election years increased printing shipments by 0.5 percent but now I think the bump is much higher - perhaps 1-2 percent."

For individual commercial printers fortunate enough to do political themed printing, the rise in sales can be even higher. "We definitely see a double digit rise in election years compared to non-election years," said Russell Price, president of Landover, Md.-based Mount Vernon Printing, which is part of Consolidated Graphics.

Because his firm is a union shop, Price said virtually all of their political work comes from Democratic candidates. "In 2008 we had a record year because in many ways it was a perfect storm - we had a highly competitive Democratic presidential primary that lasted all the way into the summer and that was really great because they were printing all the way through that cycle," he added.

"The amount of money spent during presidential elections typically goes up every cycle so I have every reason to believe 2012 will be more than 2008."

The election year boosts in commercial printing can include everything from posters, yard signs, buttons to ballots, which is a niche but very profitable business. But most of the increase is tied to direct mail spends by candidates, political parties and single issue groups.
 
"The campaigns feel that direct mail is still a pretty effective way of reaching out to people so you'll see it in everything from a presidential mailer all the way down to the school board elections," Price said.

"You can see 20% increases in hires or sales because of these election year spikes," added David Regan, CEO of Semper International, the leading US placement firm for skilled help in the graphic arts and printing industry. "We're already seeing it start to get busy and it's a lucrative portion of the business, because many campaigns are reactive and so look to get each direct mail piece out fast."

Candidates and political campaigns also tend continually tweak their message. "We may print and mail a piece for a campaign every three or four days and each mailer is on a different topic: spending, health care or whatever the issue," said Price. "They'll touch on a number of different issues over four or five weeks."

Campaigns get personal, digital print profits
 
While political themed printing traditionally has been a bulk, off-set business, increasingly political marketers are leveraging digital presses and data management to provide more targeted messaging. "The transition to digital has been happening in the last election - and even in the election before that," said Regan. "Candidates are now looking to get a lot more bang for their buck and they're doing it through personalization."

Price agreed, adding, "It depends of the type of mailer, but for fund raising, where they may include have a reply card or call to action, campaigns definitely like to personalize that. We've also seen an uptick in the use of QR codes in political mailers."

Of course, the reality of politics is that some states, such as Ohio, will be hard fought all the way through next November 6, while others may be considered lost causes by one side or the other. "I think printers in all states will see at least some benefit - especially since a lot of direct mail printing is for fundraising and that is a national campaign," said Davis. "However, certainly, printers in the 'swing' states will see more lift that those in other states."

Regan noted it's not just battleground states that can count on a boost in sales; commercial printers in the home states of candidates also tend to benefit when those people step into national races. "We found a lot of printers in Chicago got a great deal of the Obama business in 2008, mailing to battleground states like Ohio, Iowa, Georgia and Pennsylvania."

Like Price, Regan noted that when it comes to politically-themed commercial printing, it does help to have a unionized workforce, noting. "Even Republican candidates will want to use a union stamp on their work."

Price said his facility does political themed mailing and printing well outside his local market of Washington, DC, adding, "Because we're part of Consolidated Graphics, we can be the local contact and if a campaign needs to print in California we can work with one of our sister companies."

Social media still trumped by DM

The large share of the focus next year will be on President Obama and he looks to defeat a still undetermined Republican opponent and earn another four years in office. But equally lucrative for commercial printers are local races for everything from school board seats to county judgeships.  

"The cost of television ads can be so expensive for state representative races and other local elections," said Chris Seelbach, CFO and head of political consulting for The Seidewitz Group marketing firm. "So there's a major role for print."

Seelbach - who also recently won a seat on the Cincinnati City Council - dismissed the suggestion that this time around political marketers will be spending more on social media at the expense of traditional channels such as direct mail, noting, "The likely voter is over 35 and candidates want the best communication tools for reaching them."

Davis agreed, noting that even if social media gets more resources in 2012 than in past election cycles, "There seems to be a great appreciation for the power of direct marketing printing among politicians and their marketing advisors. As total campaign spending increases print will continue to get a fair share."