The poll of almost 5,000 staff in four groups – directors, managers, sales and technical staff – across England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland suggested 52% will vote to stay in the EU while 48% want out.
Managing directors across the UK were most in favour of staying put, with more EU hostility found in sales and technical staff. The most anti-EU group were technical staff in Northern Ireland, with 64% keen to quit the EU. Technical staff in Scotland were most in favour: 62% want to stay in.
The BPIF also recently published a survey, asking: ‘Brexit or Brin – what does the printing industry think?’. Some 45% of respondents thought supply chains would be hit should the UK leave the EU, “drowning out” the 1% believing leaving the EU would positively influence their supply chains. Meanwhile 37% did not envisage any impact, with the remaining 17% unsure of the impact.
Harrison Scott joint managing George Thompson said he was not surprised with the overall percentages across voting categories, pointing to a very similar pattern when his company conducted a survey on the Scottish Independence Referendum in 2014: the 55%-60% of directors and managers across Scotland preferred to remain in the UK.
“What has become more apparent in recent weeks is how sharply defined the main issues are: what will have the greatest impact on swinging people one way or the other is the economy and immigration – you vote from the heart if it’s immigration; with your head if it’s the economy,” says Thompson.
And right now the heart is ruling the head, he reckons: “As we get closer to the vote, if anything opinion is moving closer to an exit vote, but not enough in numbers to achieve an actual exit. At the time of our survey President Obama’s ‘Britain would be at the end of the queue for a trade deal’ was still ringing in people’s ears. But that is now in the past.”
And people are being more influenced by an increasingly vociferous out campaign, he says, enough to make it a “very, very close result”. BPIF research and information manager Kyle Jardine agrees on the closeness of the vote, suggesting a fifth of those the BPIF polled were undecided. If, and when, they do decide, it could swing the result.
Floating voters therefore could determine the UK’s place in the EU and if they do, politicians on both sides may have only themselves to blame. Jardine reckons much of the “scaremongering” from both in and out campaigns has added to uncertainty clouding the minds of printers. But those who are decided tend to be driven mostly by hard pragmatism on what’s in it for their business.
“The main split seems to be on whether or not the companies export: those that do predominantly want to remain. Of course a lot of people buy in products such as paper from abroad and that could also sway their final decision on 23 June. Responses to our BPIF survey indicated 81% had some reliance on exports, either directly or indirectly through their clients exporting.
“The good thing is people are talking about it much more now than a few months ago; Brexit has become very topical, with larger firms more likely to express a desire to remain than smaller companies.”
Kremer Signs’ managing director Steve Gosney told PrintWeek pollsters: “I will be voting to stay in the EU. Businesses are currently displaying a lack of confidence, which is holding back purchasing decisions. And while in the long term, I feel coming out would not have a negative impact, I do think confidence would be seriously affected for the next 18 to 24 months if we do leave.”
Inc Direct estimator Martin Collopy is voting out because “too much print is being done in Europe to the detriment of the British print industry. I recently quoted a broker for a job and his client got one from a Lithuanian printer who then had to transport it back to the UK – the price was the same. How is that possible? For years we have being losing work to Poland and Hungary and it has to stop.”
MPS sales director Craig Prince is undecided: “Long-term we could benefit by leaving, but the three years of uncertainty beforehand would have a massive economic affect. But this is a hugely important vote and we need at least an 80% turnout to justify and validate the vote.”
And do the Europeans care what we do? “Oh yes,” insists Thompson. “I think they care more than people think. A number of my friends live in Germany and France, and Brexit is spoken about widely.
“Looking at the bigger picture a number of Germans think the UK leaving would open the door for other countries to leave and that could lead to the break-up of the EU. Many French have a great deal of respect for the British and would be saddened greatly if we left.”
