Okay, after many repeated musings on the general topic of 'is this the tipping point for UK web offset?' (see blogs passim: 8 December 2008, 29 July 2009, 3 March 2010, 14 May 2010, 3 November 2010....etc), I think I can safely say: This. Really. Is. It. Walstead's audacious swoop for St Ives' magazine business is bold, it's ballsy, and it's also carefully calculated. Something else I can feel fairly safe in saying is that the Walstead chaps will not lose out on this deal whichever way the pages eventually turn. As has been evidenced from previous transactions, these are hard-headed investors who only take risks from a secured position. Walstead are purchasing assets with a book value of some £35m for £20m, and as they are buying these assets from St Ives, which depreciates things pretty aggressively, on anyone else's books this stuff would surely be worth a lot more. I'm predicting that any kit deemed surplus to requirements - as was the case with the cover press at Southernprint - will swiftly be sold-off to raise cash. What's more, St Ives has over recent years, already taken the multi-million pound hit on consolidating what were six plants down to three. This week's deal, once approved, means we will end up with a 'big three' in publication web offset with Walstead-owned businesses heading the pack, with an estimated 25% market share. Polestar and BGP follow. Prices will surely be going up as the much-mooted consolidation has its inevitable effect. Whether we ultimately end up with a duopoly in this space is going to be the next interesting thing.