The federation's quarterly Printing Outlook survey found 45% of printers increased their output levels, with 37% holding output steady and 18% experiencing declines. This led to a positive output balance (the difference between the increases and the decreases) of +27, only down two points on Q4’s output balance figure, a quarter that tends to benefit from a seasonal upturn.
The balance is a huge 28 point increase on last year’s Q1 figure of -1 and is 9 points greater than what was predicted in the previous survey.
At +28, the predicted output balance for Q2, if realised, would represent the industry’s best Q2 performance for 12 years.
BPIF research manager Kyle Jardine put some of the upturn down to the upcoming snap general election, a move that has gifted companies across the country with additional work.
Jardine said: “There will be a lot of printed materials, not just polling cards but also collateral from each of the parties involved, so obviously companies will pick up that work and that will be good for business.
“There is a broader use of print as well compared to Q4 so it’s not all seasonal in the pre-Christmas rush, at least not as much as it used to be, so printers are putting in a lot of hard work into getting work.”
Confidence in the general state of trade was reported as increasing, in stark comparison with last year’s negative trade reports in Q2 and Q3, the preceding and following months after the Brexit referendum.
However, the new Brexit Barometer, which was brought in as an addition to the survey last quarter, recorded a negative response to Brexit negotiations now that the UK has triggered Article 50, with 24% of respondents saying they felt ‘somewhat confident' regarding the long-term outlook for the economy, down from 36% in Q1. 47% said they were ‘neither confident nor unconfident’ and 21% logged ‘somewhat unconfident’ as their answer.
“These are still new questions but it was interesting to see the way it had moved,” said Jardine.
“It is a case of the wobbles, starting the process on the negotiations, just a bit of extra worry about how this is going to go.”
As ever, competitors pricing below cost was the biggest industry concern, highlighted by more than four fifths (81%) of respondents. The second most voiced concern, paper and board prices, fell slightly to 32%, and concerns over profit levels ranked as third.
There was also an upturn in recruitment, recorded as being considerably more positive than predicted, which Jardine put down in part to seasonal temporary workers taken on in Q4 being handed permanent employment in Q1.
25% of respondents said they had conducted a pay review in the quarter, with 56% expecting to conduct one in Q2.
The survey was carried out during a three-week period in early April, with 95 companies taking part. Together they employ more than 4,000 employees and have a combined turnover of £463m.
