Paper sector fear that recovery will be short-lived

The economic outlook for the pulp and paper sector is looking better but any recovery could be short-lived, according to an industry specialist.

EMGE & Co pulp and paper market research consultant Martin Glass told the British Wood Pulp Association Symposium, held in London on 13 November, that the Western European paper market had gone from no growth up until the last three months to 4.7% growth for printings and writings grades in September.

There were also some signs of growth in consumer confidence and an increase in optimism about share prices, he added, but there were still doubts over their longevity.

We are concerned about the sustainability of this upturn and feel it will collapse before the end of 12 months is out, he said.

Glass expected the upturn to falter by mid-2004, and expressed concern at the 7m tonnes of new capacity being planned for the Chinese/Asian market and the impact this would have on the market as a whole.

Robert Horne Group environment manager Tim Barker told the meeting that the biggest issue facing his company was the origin of fibre.

The debate about the logging of old growth forests in Finland, led by Greenpeaces saveordelete.com campaign (PrintWeek, 25 September), posed major questions for the industry, he added.

Barker said it was not enough for merchants just to accept the word of their suppliers.

What we need is third-party verification. Ulimately, mutual recognition is the Holy Grail, he added.

Story by Andy Scott