Norscan plummet raises price fears

Norscan pulp stocks fell by 99,000 tonnes in May, prompting further price increases in the US and speculation that European producers may follow suit.

According to the latest figures released by the Finnish Forest Industries Federation, market pulp stocks fell to 1.41m tonnes, amounting to 23 days supply, prompting US price levels to rise 13.50 ($20) per tonne to 338.50 for Northern Bleached Softwood Kraft (NBSK) pulp.

Leading market pulp producer Sdra has also hinted that an increase could be imminent.

The groups head of information Ulf Gunnarsson said: "We are discussing the situation at the moment, but I would not be surprised if an increase was announced within the next few days."

Buyers are warning that any increases could rebound, with Aracruzs new 700,000 tonnes-a-year line in Brazil set to impact on the market, and maintenance downtime at several Indonesian mills set to end in the next few weeks.

Gunnarsson said market levels were now falling to what Sdra considered to be a "sellers market", which is anything below 1.4m tonnes.

"Between 1.8m and 2.2m tonnes its a buyers market, but anything from 1.4m to 1.8m is no mans land," he said.

The Norscan inventory figures were a little bit better than expected, Gunnarsson said, but on the whole they seemed to follow seasonal trends.

Less than a month ago Sdra raised the price of its NBSK pulp last month by 7 ($10) a tonne, taking the price to 330 from 1 June (PrintWeek, 31 May).

Story by Andy Scott