What a difference a few months make. Back in March, when Alistair Darling made his first Budget speech, it was panned as being boring and predictable.
Today, the usually mundane announcement promises to be among the most dramatic ever.
So VAT cuts to boost consumer spending and higher tax rates for high-earners look set to be on the cards as the Chancellor tries to borrow his way out of the debt crisis.
Couple of comments on the site from earlier:
Mick Hart: "I dont see how a drop in VAT will make the slightest difference, as businesses pass on/reclaim VAT anyway. As far as the high street goes, I would bet most stores will see any drop as being an opportunity to increase profit \(or reduce losses!) by the 2.5%, rather than to reduce the selling price to the end user - we shall see..."
The Mighty Wind: "Targeting the consumer with price cuts [VAT reductions] is an attempt to keep consumers spending rather than saving. An attempt to mitigate the sliding confidence, bizarre when you consider most retailers are discounting well below 2.5%. I cannot see it working too well as employers are now making redundancies [as normal in these times they will overcut] and this will erode confidence much more. We need to accept some pain whilst protecting the industries we still have, lessons need to be learned from our European partners, they protect there internal markets far better than we do even with the European laws."
15:20 Alistair Darling is on his way to the Commons for the most crucial pre-Budget report (PBR) for print in a long time. The industry will be hoping for measures to boost consumer spending as well as tax reliefs on small businesses
15:30 Darling takes to his feet to a "background of uncertainty not seen for generations, extraordinary challenging times" - jeers from the Tories
15:33 Promises to "live within our means" as a country, Darling is "confident the slowdown will be shallower and shorter than thought"
15:35 "Root of today's problems is failures in the global banking system"; "regulation needs to be more effective"
15:38 Darling claims Labour success in protecting UK consumer deposits in banks
PrintWeek's Jo Francis: "Did I really just hear Darling talk about these new measures being implemented "so that as a country we live within our means"??? Coming from a government that, despite 16 years of growth, has landed us with a record public spending deficit as we confront recession, that really does seem a bit rich."
15:40 "UK government debt amongst the lowest of all major economies"
15:42 Not much on policy so far, a lot about 16 years of growth and the opportunities that has provided UK consumers
15:43 "Cut in interest rates worth about £100 a month but not enough to stimulate economy"
15:44 UK "GDP is forecast to be 0.75% this year, output will fall for only first two quarters. GDP contraction to fall to -0.75 and -1.25% in 2009
"Growth of between 1.5 and 2% in 2010"
15:45 Darling promises "£20bn fiscal stimulus"
15:46 "Britain faces significantly lower tax revenues" applying golden rules would be "perverse and damaging"
Mark Nelson, a director at Compass Business Finance, says: "Alistair Darling is highlighting the reduction in interest rates, which has benefited some consumers via a reduction in mortgage payments, however, this is not benefitting the small- to medium-size businesses that are having their overdrafts cut and their interest rates increased."
15:47 "Borrowing will rise to £78bn this year and £118bn next year"
15:48 "By 2016 back to borrowing to invest" - jeers all round
15:49 "UK net debt will increase to 48% in 2009; 57% by 2013"
"Doing nothing will lead to deeper and longer recession, allowing borrowing to rise is the right policy for the country".
15:52 "The government will find £5bn of efficiencies in the public sector in 2010"
15:54 "As businesses and families watch what they spend, it is only right the government should too"
Paul Holohan, Richmond Capital Partners states: "This amount of debt and borrowing will create uncertainty and almost certainly result in a run on the pound. This will impact on the printing industry."
15:55 VAT cut to 15% confirmed to the end of next year, comes into effect next Monday
Paul Holohan, chief executive, Richmond Capital Partners: "Reduction of VAT from 17.5% to 15%: impact on the printing industry is likely to be marginal."
15:56 Tax breaks for low earners extended
15:57 Income tax on over £150,00 a year raised to 45% from April 2011
15:58 0.5% increase in national insurance contributions
15:59 Fuel duty to increase to make up for VAT cut
16:00 "I want to help businesseses" exemption for foreign dividends coming in 2009
16:01 Small businesses: temporary increase in exemption of empty property relief for small businesses; from today, tax repayments spread "on a timetable small businesses can afford" for "as long as they need".
16:04 "Acting directly to improve access to finance" for SMEs – government to offer credit through small business finance scheme worth £1bn – SMEs to borrow between £1,000 and £1m
Paul Holohan, chief executive, Richmond Capital Partners: "The temporary respite for empty business properties is a positive move and remedies a previously poor decision."
16:06 1p tax rise in corporation tax postponed
PrintWeek's Jo Francis: "I wonder how much it will cost retailers to adjust their systems to reflect this lower VAT rate? Meanwhile, the CBI had recommended that a temporary cut in employer National Insurance contributions would be the best way to keep people in jobs. Yet Darling is putting NI up..."
16:10 "UK only country in the world with binding emissions cut plan" - aims to reduce emissions by 80% by 2050
16:11 Heating bills for consumers: "fall in energy not reduced quickly enough"; more to be done to ensure falls in wholesale energy prices are passed on
16:12 Bringing forward planned spending on environmental policies
16:13 Government will seek state approval from the EU to prop up mortgage lending; body set up to monitor lending levels to businesses and individuals and practices by the banks
16:14 Three month wait before lenders can repossess a house
16:15 Free debt advice to be offered (cost to the tax payer - £15m)
16:17 Investment in social regeneration projects brought forward
16:18 Small businesses to be provided with government job and training advice
16:21 Cut in tax for less polluting cars
16:21 Up to 8m people on low incomes will get 50p for every pound they save; benefit increases for moderate income families brought forward
16:22 "Biggest increase in pension credit since its introduction in 2003"; basic state pension to increase at £4.55 a week – "pensioners should see a real benefit"
16:24 Summing up, Darling says: "Exceptional times require exceptional measures"
One anonymous comment just in: "Borrow borrow borrow spend spend spend. To fix an economy that's... errr, over indebted and over spent."
That is it for Darling, massive borrowing within those plans – a real gamble by the government. What will be the impact on your business? Will the Chancellor's proposals stimulate the economy? Leave your comments below.