Experts expect little change in Darling's first full-year budget

Industry experts are expecting few surprises from Alistair Darling's first full-year budget, despite the downward pressures on the economy.

Deloitte economic advisor Roger Bootle said: "This budget is unlikely to set the world on fire and certainly won't emulate the US government's impressively forthright action to support its beleaguered economy."

PriceWaterhouseCoopers tax partner John Whiting described much of the budget as "a work in progress".

He said that high-profile issues, such as capital gains tax reforms and non-domicile arrangements, have been well documented and are unlikely to hold any surprises when the chancellor makes his announcement.

He told printweek.com: "The short answer in a sense is that we don't expect much in the way of tax changes. It's really about whether he can convince us that the economy is doing fine. There's an element of building confidence. He needs to convince us that I'm right to be feeling OK. We're not expecting any dramatic tax changes."

Bootle said the recent higher than expected tax revenues reported for January may give the chancellor room to offer some small tax moves, which indirectly could be good news for the print industry.

These include suspending the planned 2p rise in fuel duty, or raising the threshold for stamp duty to drive the ailing house market, giving HIPs printers something to look forward to as well.

Whiting said small businesses would be looking for confirmation that an annual investment allowance, and capital allowances and write-offs for machinery, of £50,000 would be introduced in April.

But new measures to prevent income-shifting may impact smaller businesses, where, for example, a print owner might shift some of his income to his spouse in order to avoid paying higher rates of tax.

Whiting said that "HM Treasury sees significant tax avoidance" in this area, but that the proposed mechanism for dealing with it is far from elegant.

"It's a tax measure that many will have to spend a lot of time managing their way through to no great effect," he said. "So we're looking for a refinement of that."