The early confidence that came from an almost universally strong first quarter has been eroded by the pangs of painfully slow business in the following three months. Companies that were by March forecasting their best year since 2007 are now looking at a flat result year-on-year, at best.

The question and the concern for UK print is whether this was a short-term blip caused by one-off factors, such as the royal wedding and Japanese tsunami, or whether it is an indication that the economic strategy of the past few years isn’t working.

It may seem alarmist to suggest we could be headed back into recession, but this time last month it would have seemed similarly outlandish to suggest the FTSE would fall 13.5% in a little over a week, dropping below 5,000 points in the process.

More than a year after a hugely buoyant Ipex, the print industry is still facing many of the constricting factors that led to the glut of business failures in 2009. Now, Drupa is around the corner (some 260 days distant at the time of writing), and for many the ability to invest come May next year may decide the future of their businesses.

As KBA’s Christian Knapp points out we could be seeing the emergence of a haves/have-nots divide in UK print that will leave the latter – who may already have put off investing for one or two cycles – hopelessly uncompetitive.

Simon Nias is news editor of PrintWeek