However, while the fact that UK graphic paper volumes are predicted to slump to 1m tonnes by the end of the decade, from more than 2m tonnes in 2007, is enough to make even the most hardened advocate of printed media fear for the future of the industry, the statistics might not tell the full story.
"You’ve got to remember that paper has no reason to exist other than as a carrier of information and it has had a bloody good run for 2,000 years," says National Association of Paper Merchants (NAPM) director Tim Bowler.
There is little doubt that digital media is partially responsible for the decline in the sale of paper volumes, but the economic downturn has also played a key role in accelerating the reduction in paper consumption – with volumes falling 26.1% since 2008 alone.
In isolation, it’s difficult for anyone to put a positive spin on the decline in paper volumes, but when they’re contrasted with the turnover of the UK print industry the picture actually gets much brighter – with print revenues only slipping by 7.8% over the past five years.
"With the emergence of new print technologies, I think there’s the potential to continue the trend to produce a higher-value product, that’s targeted for a better response. That’s the theory at least," says Andrew Moss, founder of print procurement specialist AM:PM.
Moss’s theory rings true with Bowler: "There is always going to be a place for print on paper. People enjoy receiving printed material, whether it’s a personalised marketing message or a magazine. In fact, all the evidence suggests that consumers are more likely to read and act on a piece of print. It’s also clear that the effectiveness of digital communications are on the wane – because of saturation."
But even Bowler admits that digital communications do have the advantage of immediacy, although he tempers this with the belief that this just strengthens the argument that print and digital communications, when used correctly, are complementary.
In fact, it’s not just the rise in digital technologies that are adversely impacting paper volumes, the technology of paper itself is also likely to be playing a part in shrinking tonnage volumes.
"Over the past few years, the mills have worked very hard to produce lighter, better, bulkier papers – and if every job has moved to say a 10gsm- lighter product, then while the printers volumes are fairly stable, the merchants’ volumes will have tumbled," says Moss.
Equally, the NAPM volume stats don’t include packaging, and it’s universally accepted that the print for packaging sector has been the most resilient in the face of five years of economic turmoil.
To counteract the decline in commercial volumes, the merchants are following the lead of their printer customers, by not just accepting a business model of managed decline, but instead looking for new revenue streams to complement their core business. One obvious example being Paperlinx, which generates a large chunk of its revenues from non-paper products and has pinned its future on an evolution from paper merchant into a business that also sells everything from paper to wide-format printers and consumables to, most recently, bolt on services for printers.
But those printer customers have got seriously thinner on the ground over the past five years – and while this could just as easily be a symptom of volume decline as a cause, it’s obvious that the two are linked.
And the link between structural change in print and the volume of bad debt impacting merchants is just as strong. Even here, though, it seems that things are starting to get better, with bad debts over the past two years roughly half of what they were in 2009, when the figure reached an eye-watering £17.5m (see box left).
"In the print industry, it has been a case of survival of the fittest and there’s been a massive clear-out. As a result there are a lot of fit and healthy companies left," believes Bowler. "And a lot of those companies aren’t all about just print on paper."
And that seems to be the key takeaway from the latest NAPM figures: in the same way successful print business have to be multi-dimensional in the services and products they offer, so do the paper merchants.
But it is clear that while the past five years have been incredibly painful for the print and paper industries alike – the lessons have been learned and the evolution is well underway.
Print has evolved from a craft industry to a manufacturing industry, and now, many argue, it’s in the process of evolving from a manufacturing industry to a communications industry. The million-dollar question is: what will be the next evolution?
The only certainty is that there will be one, and that print will embrace it.
