It could be argued that nothing is ever certain in print, but as 2010 was ushered in with re­­­strained optimism, things were possibly more uncertain than even printers were used to. For while it is all but certain that the UK exited recession in the last quarter of 2009, there is no certainty about the speed or longevity of the recovery and, as last week's BPIF Printing Outlook survey reported, there are still many challenges ahead.

Talk of depression that dominated the headlines at the start of last year proved to be false, but 2009 will still be remembered as an annus horriblis for the print sector and the UK economy as a whole.

Things are better now, of that there is little doubt, but serious question marks remain over when, and how, the economy will recover.

Bleak outlook
Last week, the BPIF re­­leased its quarterly Printing Outlook survey. The analysis provided by the trade federation was surprisingly bearish, considering the survey results.

 Positives were put down to seasonal variation and most good news was qualified with warnings that the situation may well worsen, with corporate affairs director Andrew Brown warning of "testing times ahead".

The air of negativity is supported by the manufacturers' organisation EEF, which predicted an average growth of 1.2% for the manufacturing sector as a whole, which it claimed would face a "muted recovery" that would likely include further casualties.

EEF chief economist Lee Hopley says: "Last year was a record year for all the wrong reasons and the outlook for the UK economy this year is far from certain, with little momentum behind a recovery until the latter part of
the year."

Tom Lawton, head of manufacturing at BDO, adds that some key manufacturing
sectors would continue to suffer the effects of the global slowdown and global competition at least until the early part of 2010.
"Manufacturers will need to continue to implement cost-cutting measures, including staff reductions, to maintain profits in what will continue to be a very challenging market," he said.

Richard Lambert, CBI director-general, was equally brutal in his predictions for the year. He said that 2010 would be a year of "exceptional challenges for businesses in Britain" and that there would be more repercussions from the credit crunch, with businesses still struggling to attract finance.

But it's not all doom and gloom. Delve deeper into the Printing Outlook survey and you will find reasons for optimism and signs that we might be out of the woods.

At first glance, the survey appears to confirm the BPIF's caution. Over half (56%) of respondents said they anticipated a slowdown in trade in the first quarter; just 9% predicted they would win new business; and 31% said they had cut prices during the last quarter of 2009.

Green shoots
However, there are significant indicators that the UK print industry is emerging from the recession.

Overcapacity in the industry is in decline, with two thirds of respondents operating at 80% or more capacity. In addition, more than a third took on more staff in the period, compared with just 13% who reduced headcount.

There are also signs that printers are adapting well to the market conditions. The gap between those reporting a fall as opposed to a rise in margins was at its narrowest for seven quarters and just 3% made a loss in the period.

Confidence is also returning to capital expenditure. More than a third of respondents said they were planning to invest in new equipment and the decline in bank lending has halted, with 20% reporting an improvement in access to finance in the last month of the year.

January is often the cruelest month for print, but the bloodbath that plagued the industry at the start of last year marks a stark contrast to the quiet start to 2010. In the first week of 2009, five companies with a turnover of more than £4m (and a combined turnover of almost £50m) had failed. It was a portentous start to the year.

With Ipex and a general election on the horizon, there are reasons to be optimistic. It should be noted that only once in the past fifteen years have printers predicted that the first quarter of the year will be busier than the last.

However, challenges remain. We are living in an economic limbo as the effects of quantitative easing are yet to be felt. Interest rates will rise in the coming months and what impact that will have on the ability of businesses to borrow to invest in capital remains to be seen. Investment is crucial to the development of print and the manufacturing sector.

The pound will almost certainly remain weak for a while yet as the impact of the high government borrowing hits markets. This will represent an opportunity for export once the eurozone is back up to strength.

So the start of 2010 is as uncertain as the last, yet the uncertainty surrounds the pace of the recovery, not the depth of the fall, and that is certainly something to be positive about.