Will litho be around in 10 years time? Is digital print muscling in on litho's territory? Can these two rival technologies work together? Ever since digital print emerged as a viable alternative to litho, people have been asking these questions. But, while the technology is moving forward at an ever-increasing rate, there are as yet no definitive answers.

A new report from research consultancy Pira Inter-national entitled The Future of Sheetfed in a Digital Age attempts to shed some light on the issue.

The report says that while litho's foreseeable future is safe, the market is set to shrink in the coming years, with other technologies taking significant slices of the sheetfed pie.

Smaller market
In number terms, this equates to the global market for sheetfed litho contracting by 8.5% before 2014. The market's value will fall from $155.7bn (£95bn) in 2006 to $142.7bn in 2014. According to Pira, the market is worth $146bn in 2009.
The report notes that, while the value of the market will fall, the number of A4 printed pages will only contract by 2% to just under 7tr.

Christian Knapp, managing director of KBA UK, expects growth in the "population-rich developing countries" to return in late 2011 and early 2012. Although, he added that growth in the industrialised nations would remain patchy.

However, going forward, Knapp disagrees with Pira's predictions that market segments such as packaging in the industrialised nations will fluctuate around the $40bn mark from now until 2014. He expects "stronger growth" in these nations, thanks to changes within the population and demographic.

Elsewhere, the report states that press suppliers continue to explore ways to improve press efficiency and productivity through larger formats and perfector machines. The argument is, that by increasing sheet sizes, the printing of books, posters and packaging becomes more efficient.

Key drivers
The Pira snapshot of sheetfed's future goes on to cite technological advancements such as digital workflows, closed-loop colour control and automatic plate loading as key drivers in the market.

According to Knapp, sheetfed can benefit from digital integration thanks to the high level of automation on modern presses, which provides "increased flexibility of format, makeready and changeover".

While Pira claims the makeready set-up on a modern press is possible in 8-15 minutes with low waste levels, Jim Todd, sales director at Heidelberg UK, says this can be significantly quicker on some presses, thanks to digital workflow integration.

The report also goes on to identify other printing methods, notably web offset and digital technology, as competitors to sheetfed. Todd though, is not convinced of web offset's threat.

"I think the sheetfed technology we saw emerging at Drupa 2008 counter-attacks the threat of web offset and digital," he says. "Run lengths are coming down and this is leaving the vulnerable, soft underbelly of the web sector exposed."

Benefits for litho
Todd adds that sheetfed litho can benefit from decreasing run lengths by taking some of that web work while also offering a different proposition to digital print. However, falling run lengths coupled with increased industry investment in digital will help lower production costs, leading to more work being produced digitally, according to Robert Stabler, country manager, UK & Ireland, for HP's Indigo Digital Print, Imaging and Printing Group.

"This will push the economic breakeven point with offset and encourage the migration of work from conventional production to digital," adds Stabler.

Finishing advances
Knapp says that in the medium term, while digital will impact the litho sector, its penetration will be "felt strongest in the small-format markets" of B2 and B3. Going forward though, he believes advances in finishing equipment for digital presses will catalyse stronger productivity, identifying the printing of direct mail and books as particular benefactors.

Martyn Train, head of marketing for production systems for Xerox UK & Ireland, agrees with Knapp's earlier point that digital print technology can only be considered a threat at the low end of the production market.

"In today's market, clients often require both litho and digital print and it will be those commercial printers equipped with the right technology for the job and skilled in operating both methods that will have the competitive advantage in the near future," he says.

For the time being, digital and sheetfed litho look set to hold mutually-beneficial, complementary roles that can effectively cater for different applications and varying run lengths.

Pira's report looks to 2014 and while digital and web offset will continue to advance, it is clear that manufacturers in the litho sheetfed sector such as Heidelberg, KBA, and Manroland among others will not just sit back. The race is far from over.