Paper prices are a hot topic right now, as publishers and printers grapple with the implications of having to pay rather more for this fundamental commodity.

As a result, I'm sure we will see more closures of marginal magazine titles, and there will be reductions in page formats, paginations and print runs, while other products may well move online. Many publishers have contracted prices that expire at the end of the year, after which some tough budget reviews will undoubtedly be taking place.

This thorny topic was addressed by M-real's Andrew Gunman at the PPA Production Conference last week, where he acknowledged that paper prices that are too high will "kill the goose that lays the golden egg", and of course paper companies don't want that. And given the economic bloodbath we're in the midst of it's a less than ideal time to be raising prices.

But the fact is, the paper companies have to get their house in order. Looking at the roll-call of mill closures the figures are jaw-dropping. Capacity in coated magazine and fine paper in Europe has been reduced by some 3.3m tonnes, or 15% apiece. M-real alone has taken out more than 1m tonnes of capacity. And when these guys close a mill they are effectively closing a whole town, so the enormity of the decisions being made to achieve some semblance of supply/demand balance cannot be underestimated.

In the UK we now have just one major mill producing publication papers, UPM's Caledonian Paper. I worry that as an import market we will be at a disadvantage against our continental colleagues - just look what's happening with gas. Forward planning regarding required tonnages must be high on the "to do" list of those charged with securing paper supply - that single mill strategy might not work in the future.

The paper industry has been in recession for seven years or more, and publishers and printers have benefited from advantageous pricing as a result. But after the big party comes the big hangover. At the same conference IPC Media manufacturing director Jasper Scott stated that he'd had to tell his board that he wasn't going to be able to deliver the price reductions they'd previously enjoyed.

So what is a reasonable price for magazine paper? Gunman was prepared to put his head above the parapet with a price that would allow his company to pay a dividend and make appropriate investments in R&D,  and that would be circa £660/tonne. Something to plug into that spreadsheet, perhaps.