The IPA's latest Bellwether Report, released yesterday, points to a possible improvement in business confidence, shock.

In a nutshell, marketing budgets are still being cut and spend is still declining, but it's not declining as quickly as it was. With things as they are, that's a cause for celebration and IPA president Rory Sutherland was even moved to suggest the worst could be over.

Read with a "glass half full" mentality this should be good news. Perhaps the bottom of the bottom has indeed been reached. I'm not so sure, though. I think a tough autumn awaits for those who make it through the summer. In a speech last month Paul Tucker the deputy governor of the Bank of England predicted that we'd have to wait until late autumn to have a clearer picture of any recovery and how the economy is really shaping up. Bank lending is still subdued and a cause for continuing concern; as are the hugely inflated fees being charged by those banks that are willing to renew or extend facilities.

Reading the Bellwether statement started me thinking about print's traditional role as a bellwether for the economy as a whole - first into recession, and then first out when business in general picks up. I'm wondering whether in this digital age, with so much adspend switched to online channels, if print will still act as a reliable barometer. According to the Advertising Association, overall adspend last year fell 4% to £18.6bn, but within that online jumped by 19%. Print-based advertising overall still makes up by far the largest share of the pie, but with the dynamics changing so rapidly it's going to be essential to keep a sharp eye on every indicator going. Normal rules most definitely no longer apply.